Forecasts, Warnings, and Comments - 8

Forecasts, Warnings, and Comments - 8

Over 20 years of writing articles my goals were to report digital's impact on broadcast, to aid internet radio, and to help indie artists. Comments were not based on guesswork. Words came from the trenches, from real-world experience or from research provided by credible companies.

An observation: No matter how many industry trades you read, seldom are there stories of new creative concepts or higher production values being reached.

In 2017, what will be apparent is that it doesn't matter whether content comes from consumers with a flair for creative or the supposed "professional." Both will match each other for consistent mediocrity, and few hits.

One question I'd like to hear discussed: Will those in control of creating content realize just how difficult it is to produce quality, consistently?

Here are some observations made over the years.

Ken Dardis

Comments from Ken:

For nearly a decade, radio failed at conveying reasons why consumers should try HD Radio. With few exceptions, promises of "new stations between stations" are still unfulfilled. Pounding the audience with commercials for another few years is not going to increase demand, and radio shouldn't embarrass itself by fumbling this football again. Resuscitating HD is not the answer when euthanasia is called for.

HD Radio is as dead as AM Stereo and Quad Sound, but broadcast radio is not dead. So, instead of a relaunch, why not try producing better on-air and online product?

This isn't the 1980s anymore. To argue that Pandora is not radio, or that the numbers offered by it are not "true" reports of its audience's listening patterns, only falls on radio industry ears.

Young media buyers are looking closely at what new media offers, and Pandora is on the top of that heap.

For watchers of Triton Digital's Webcast Metrics, take notice on how many of these do not show up in the top twenty of those using this service.

Facebook Live Audio

RadioTunes (SKY-FM)

Google Play Music

Windows Media Guide

Over the past year I have been methodically posting to Facebook and Twitter, tracking those posts back to page visits, and turning those page visits into dollar amounts. Doing some basic math gives a fairly accurate picture of time spent posting to revenue generated from posting, and I'm prepared to say that - as I've been doing it - the return on investment is not worth the effort.

Now comes the caveat. Because this past year has been spent setting up a measurement system and a systematic way of posting, I very well may be approaching it wrong. So, to be certain that my hypothosis is correct, my next step will be to alter how I've been doing the posting to see if it will push an improvement in results.

Side Note: 4 years, and three different approaches to using social media have shown there is one efficient way to do social media.

We now have a push to place smartphone and internet connectivity in vehicles, so there will be no cavalry coming over the horizon to save radio from what's ahead this time.

Couponing online is a fast-fizzle fad that will end up making money for only a few companies. If radio station account execs try selling this concept, and it shows the same level of negative feedback as we've seen in the first go-around with companies who are adept at digital, do you sincerely believe that radio will make this market grow?

In today's AdAge article titled "What's the most social of all media?" - they left out "radio." (Free subscription required to read.)

For everyone who's bellowing how far the radio industry has come since consolidation, I believe this indicates how much farther radio must go. The absence of radio from the list may be Freudian on the author's part, but it is a very real indication of where radio currently fits into a marketer's plan.

In the 18-54 demo group, 69% say "home" is where they read their first emails of the day.

Apps? For a radio group they make sense. For an individual station? I can't find the math that shows enough of an audience will use a single station's app to make the cost worthwhile - even if we don't take the brief shelf life an app has into consideration.

Radio industry executives are still trying to mold the internet for their use, instead of finding which of the internet's applications can be best used by radio.

Last week we had our cable TV disconnected. The first day was filled with as much angst as when I walked away from cigarettes.

By day three, though, the wife and I were watching "BBC News" along with "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart." Shuffling between the iPad and PC, we started pulling in programs and movies that were formerly found on our cable package (which we were about to be charged $150+/month with the latest increase)

With mobile beginning to affect youth's use of broadcast media, radio stations targeting this group will need a mobile presence equitable to what the major mobile players spend dollars to achieve.

...let's focus on how relevant "local programming" is in a world where the internet connects you to hundreds of "local" web sites listing thousands of "local" items - and each can be accessed when the consumer wants to have "local" served to them.

...being online is becoming an isolationist action, through no fault of your own.

There are a number of problems surrounding an indie artist who's looking to get noticed online. In no particular order they are:

getting word out about your music

getting radio programmers to take time and listen

motivating station programmers to add your song

tracking an individual station's audience response

having word spread that your song is generating

listener response

While marketers are chasing down the use of analytics and metrics in consumer contact, the radio industry continues to recruit individuals who lack this knowledge - and it appears the industry really doesn't care if its account reps understand how an ad campaign works, either.

Anyone keeping up on the push by Cumulus to break into the deals craze? Anyone know if Clear Channel's involvement in this rather late copying of online deals is making a difference? These are open questions with no answer at the moment, but let me outline why I think this will end up like the Broadcast.com bust of the late 1990s.

More Forecasts, Warnings, and Comments: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10

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Click to Enlarge Tuesday, December 27, 2016